Czech database visuals
(Edited 09 AUG 2025)
Recently, Steve Kirsch posted an article using the Czech Republic’s database (a large flat file) of mortality and COVID vaccines making the astonishing claim that the COVID19 vaccines caused more deaths!1 This assertion, along with the one that the vaccines actually did more harm than good gets repeated ad nauseum, usually with no data to support it. In this case, some basic programming by Kirsch suggested the vaccine had an all-cause mortality rate higher than those who didn’t use the vaccine.
The database can be accessed at their site.2 Kirsch also notes John Ioannidis discounts this database for some reason. Why Ioannidis discounts it would be good to know.
In any case, I took a look at this data. I used the following fields of data from the database:
I built summary tables for better visualization. Basically, it looks at all-cause mortality for groups that took the vaccine and those that didn’t. To summarize the number of records (rows) of this database (there were over 12 million records, complete and incomplete):
Furthermore, there were 7,266,697 records of a first vaccine, which means there were more who took the vaccine than who didn’t. There’s additional data on subsequent vaccines that I did not look at, but would be interesting to explore.
Vaccinated, and not vaccinated deaths in five year period, by birth year in 5 year bins:
But the above is not a valid comparison, because there were more people that took the vaccine than didn’t. A value representing incidence of deaths for either group is more relevant:
Or, plotted together vaccinated and not vaccinated death incidence:
It’s also interesting to note how it overwhelmingly affected those in the older age groups, especially in birth bins1925 - 1930, 1930 -1935, and 1935 - 1940.3 The infection distribution (tested rather than all known and unknown infections, by the way) that the above is based on looks like this:
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Mortality incidence:
This can be broken in to two parts, those who took the vaccine, and those who didn’t:
It should not be immediately concluded that not being vaccinated alone caused more deaths, since there can be confounding elements. That being said, these results certainly don’t support the view that the COVID vaccine led to increased all-cause mortality.
Distribution of vaccinations, by birth year 5 year bin:
https://kirschsubstack.com
Keep in mind the horizontal axes are 5 year age bins, and by no means have comparable numbers of people in them.
I think the number one factor you are missing is the healthy-user bias. When vaccines were in short supply, those not given vaccines were usually:
A. Terminally ill and not expected to survive long enough that covid was a worry.
B. The side effects with existing heart conditions and a litany of medications were considered too great to give doses to.
So your 'unvaccinated' group might already have stage-4 cancer, and had several heart attacks, with liver and kidney failure at 80+ for example. Yes, they didn't waste/give a limited availability covid vaccine to such a person....and covid may have killed such a person, due to the comorbidities weakening the system so much and less lack of vaccination.
So what about all the unreported deaths from the vaccinated group that were not included in your data? There were plenty of them that were never reported to our vaers system, which usually only picks up 1% of deaths and side effects. This was also by design. There were also the people that got the vaccines that passed away right after their shot or within 2 weeks that weren’t included. We may never know.